Holiday online retail sales are expected to increase 10% in 2021. Prices will also climb.

Customers shop at a Macy’s store in New York on Black Friday 2020. This year, Adobe predicts that many more consumers will buy online.

Kena Betancur / AFP via Getty Images

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Online holiday shopping in the United States will increase 10% in 2021 to $ 207 billion after climbing 33% a year ago at the worst of the pandemic, according to a new study.

Posted this morning by


the study is based on a combination of more than 1,000 billion visits to US retail sites that run the company’s e-commerce software, and a survey of more than 1,000 US consumers.

He points out that online retail continues to grow despite the reopening of physical stores this year as the Covid-19 pandemic abates. Adobe says the growth in online shopping for the holidays in 2021 could vary between 5% and 15%, depending on trends in Covid-19 cases and related store closings as well as macroeconomic factors.

Adobe is also seeing inflation reduce the purchasing power of consumers this year. The study predicts that consumers will pay on average 9% more during the Cyber ​​Week period for comparable products than a year ago. Adobe notes that online prices have increased on average for 16 consecutive months.

This year’s shopping season – the period from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31 – will be more evenly distributed than in previous years, according to the study. Adobe sees Cyber ​​Monday (the Monday after Thanksgiving weekend) sales of $ 11.3 billion, up 4% from a year ago. It predicts Black Friday (the Friday after Thanksgiving) sales of $ 9.5 billion, up 5%, and Thanksgiving Day sales itself of $ 5.4 billion, up 6% .

Adobe expects consumers to see a “bane” of out-of-stock messages this year as many retailers grapple with persistent supply chain constraints. Adobe reports that out-of-stock messages have increased 172% this year compared to the pre-pandemic period.

There may be fewer discounts this year. Adobe predicts discounts will range from 5% to 25%, compared to a historical range of 10% to 30%. He sees the biggest discounts in the PC and electronics categories, with the smallest discounts on furniture and tools.

Adobe also looked at global retailing during the holiday season and predicts it will grow 11% to $ 910 billion.

And the company made some predictions about this year’s most popular giveaways:

  • Toys: Tamagotchi Pix, Pop Fidget, Got2Glow Fairy Finder, Baby Yoda, Gabby’s Dollhouse

  • Game Hardware: Nintendo Switch OLED, PlayStation 5, Xbox Series S / X, Elgato Stream Deck

  • Game software: Metroid Dread, Battlefield 2042, Pokémon Brilliant Diamond & Shining Pearl, Halo Infinite, FIFA 22

  • Others: Apple AirPods Max, Smart Cups, Instant Pot Air Fryers, Smart Water Bottles, Drones, Record Players

Write to Eric J. Savitz at [email protected]

Anne G. Cash

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